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London has just hosted two mass demonstrations on successive weekends. And based on the numbers of marchers the Countryside Alliances scored a lop sided away win over the Stop the War Coalition and the Muslim Association of Britain. This unlikely result reflects alienation felt by rural people. (650 words)

For those demonstrating against the war, participating was probably a simple matter of giving up a leisurely Sunday routine and catching a bus or tube into the centre of London. For most of the rural marchers demonstrating involved getting somebody to do farm chores and making a long train or coach trip to London. This makes the victory all the more convincing.

As impressive as the victory was, it probably means little in direct political terms. The government's response to the Countryside Alliance's march was a terse news release from a junior minister claiming variously that most people disagree with them, it was addressing the issues raised and there were also problems in the city. The government has very little to lose in the countryside.

The war with Iraq issue was the subject of a House of Commons debate just three days before the antiwar march. While larger numbers of government backbenchers threaten to vote against the government, their majority is so large that such momentary desertions mean little.

It is also high on the agenda of the Labour Parties annual conference this week. Rural issues were, however, relegated to a fringe meeting debate between the government's ranking minister on agriculture and the president of the National Farmers' Union. The intense media coverage that Iraqi issue receives will inevitably fuel the sense of alienation in the countryside.

The government can, of course, on both issues claim with justification that it is showing leadership. And that it will and should be judged on its performance within four years at a general election.

The Iraq issue will almost certainly be resolved in a matter of months, one way or another and will be a faded memory by the time the government faces the electorate. Simply time is on its side.

This is unlikely to be the case as far as countryside issues are concerned, particularly if the government continues to avoid responding to them and thereby continues to cultivate a sense of alienation. That the government has a long way to go on this respect was evident from a news release issued directly after the Countryside Alliance's London March. It read: "Countryside Alliance's Ten Point Agenda Endorses Government's Policies and Priorities."

It is almost certainly the sense of alienation that has provided the motivation for rural people to support the Countryside Alliance. Established rural organization must see the emergence of the alliance as a treat.

The government's attitude may well be that it can afford to take it on the chin from the countryside, as their votes are few and already beyond saving. This might indicate that the Countryside Alliance's efforts, successful as they have been, are wasted time and effort.

This is, of course, not the case. While voters may judge the government's performance mainly on the basis of their own well being, they do consider the plight of others. If the case was otherwise, minority issues would never be addressed.

The reality of this is that while a single demonstration will achieve little benefit in terms of direct government action, it will register with the urban population at large which will, of course, have its say only at the rather distant general election.

It, therefore, seems that the countryside will need to continue to demonstrate for some time to come. These demonstrations will surely become less well humoured than the 400,000 show of strength last week. The hope is that they will continue to be as law abiding.

September 30, 2002